WTI Weekly Technical Analysis: The Rising Channel Still Holds as Hormuz Uncertainty Drives the Market

WTI finished Friday at around $92.44 on my TradingView chart after trading as high as $94.75 and as low as $91.51. The session was another example of the uncertainty currently dominating the oil market: prices initially moved lower on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran, but then recovered part of the decline as the market reassessed the situation.
The broader rising channel remains intact. This is still the most important feature of my daily chart, and it also means that the key support and resistance levels are not static — they move higher with the channel as time progresses.

The bigger picture: the rising channel remains the key

The main structure on my daily chart remains the rising channel that has developed from the June/July lows.
The lower boundary of this channel is currently around $87–88, while the middle of the channel is approaching approximately $96–97. The upper boundary is considerably higher and currently projects toward the $113–115 area.
WTI has already experienced a significant correction from the September high above $106, but so far the decline remains contained within the broader rising structure.
This is important because the channel is not simply a pair of fixed trendlines. Because the channel is rising, the value of its lower boundary, midpoint and upper boundary increases over time. In other words, a support level that is around $87–88 today will be higher if price reaches the same part of the channel several weeks from now.
That is why I will continue to refer to the channel rather than treating individual horizontal levels as permanent numbers.
The market has corrected, but the broader rising channel has not been broken.

Friday's price action: uncertainty rather than a confirmed reversal

Friday was another good example of how sensitive crude oil has become to geopolitical headlines.
WTI settled at $92.41, down $2.20, or approximately 2.3%, while WTI finished the week roughly 8% lower. Brent settled at $104.32.
The initial sell-off was driven largely by growing expectations that the U.S. and Iran could find a path toward a ceasefire and potentially reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
But the market did not simply continue lower. After reaching the lower part of Friday's range, buyers returned and WTI recovered part of the decline.
That is why I see Friday's session more as a sign of market indecision than a confirmed bearish reversal.
The market clearly reacted to the possibility of a major fundamental change, but it has not yet received confirmation that such a change will actually happen.

4H chart: the bullish structure is still alive

The 4H chart provides a more constructive picture than the daily candle alone might suggest.
After the sharp decline from the $106 area, WTI found support around $89–90.
This area is important because the 4H SMA200 is currently around $90.36, while the rising channel support is also approaching from below.
Price briefly moved into this area but subsequently recovered and remains above the 4H SMA200.
That is important from a technical perspective.
As long as WTI remains above the 4H SMA200 and, more importantly, above the lower boundary of the rising channel, the recent decline can still be interpreted as a correction within the larger uptrend.
The 4H chart also shows price attempting to stabilize around the $92–93 area. The market has not yet reclaimed the important resistance zone around $95–97, but neither has it broken the structural support underneath.

The key resistance: $95–97

The first major obstacle on the way higher is the $95–97 area.
On my chart, $96.89 is the key horizontal resistance, while the middle portion of the rising channel is moving into approximately the same region.
This is an important point because the channel midpoint itself is rising.
If price reaches this area later, the exact numerical value of the channel midpoint will be higher than it is today. This is one of the reasons why I prefer to follow the channel dynamically rather than assigning one fixed target to it.
A move back above $96.89 would therefore be important. It would put price back toward the middle of the broader rising channel after the recent correction.
Above that, the next references are approximately $98–100, followed by the $103–107 area and the previous high around $106–107.
The upside structure can therefore be viewed in stages:
$94–95 → $96–97 → $98–100 → $103–107 → upper channel.

The downside levels

On the downside, the first area I am watching is approximately $90–91, where the 4H SMA200 and recent price structure are located.
Below that, the most important level on my current chart is $87.81.
This is significant because it is close to the lower boundary of the broader rising channel.
And here again, the fact that the channel is rising matters.
$87.81 is not a permanent support level. The lower channel boundary is moving higher every day. If WTI takes several days or weeks to reach it, the actual channel support may be closer to $88–89 or even higher.
That is why the channel should be treated as a dynamic support zone, not a single fixed price.
A decisive break below the lower channel would be much more significant than simply trading below $90 for a few hours.

Hormuz: the fundamental story remains unresolved

The biggest fundamental development this week has been the possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran has proposed a process that could potentially lead to the reopening of the strait within seven days if the necessary conditions are met. Reuters reported that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were exploring a phased path that could involve Tehran reopening Hormuz while Washington lifts its economic blockade.
However, the situation remains unresolved. Reuters reported on Saturday that the Wall Street Journal had reported President Trump rejected the Iranian proposal, while Iran was still awaiting a formal U.S. response.
This explains much of Friday's price action.
The market initially priced in the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, but uncertainty returned quickly.
So Hormuz reopening within seven days should currently be treated as a conditional scenario, not as a confirmed event.

The physical oil market remains under pressure

The physical market is also an important part of this story.
Oil is still moving through the region, but producers have increasingly relied on expensive alternative logistics, including ship-to-ship transfers around the Gulf of Oman.
Reuters reported that STS transfers reached around 2.5 million barrels per day in September, up from 1.4 million bpd in August, while tanker costs have risen dramatically.
This is important because reopening Hormuz would not instantly normalize the physical market.
Shipping availability, insurance, tanker positioning, freight costs and existing logistical bottlenecks would still need time to normalize.
There is therefore a difference between a political announcement that Hormuz will reopen and actual evidence that the physical oil trade is returning to normal.

U.S. inventories provide a counterweight

The latest EIA report also provides a less bullish signal for WTI.
For the week ending September 18, U.S. commercial crude inventories increased by approximately 3.0 million barrels to 426.4 million barrels, while the SPR stood at 284.55 million barrels.
This means the U.S. inventory picture is not showing the same degree of physical tightness currently visible in parts of the international market.
That divergence is one reason why the Brent-WTI spread remains important. Brent settled around $104.32 on Friday compared with WTI at $92.41.

Three scenarios from here

Scenario 1: Hormuz remains disrupted

If negotiations fail and the current restrictions around Hormuz continue, the geopolitical premium could remain embedded in crude prices.
Technically, this scenario would be consistent with WTI holding the rising channel and eventually reclaiming $95–97.
A break above $96.89 would then put $98–100 back into focus, followed by the $103–107 area.
If the channel continues rising, the projected values of these levels will also move higher over time.

Scenario 2: Hormuz reopens

If a genuine agreement is reached and Hormuz returns to normal operation, part of the geopolitical premium could come out of crude.
The first major technical test would be the lower channel around $87–88.
A sustained break below that dynamic support would represent a much more significant change than a normal pullback toward $90.
At the same time, the physical market would need to confirm that tanker traffic, insurance and logistics are actually returning to normal.

Scenario 3: Continued uncertainty

This may be the most important short-term scenario.
The market receives a positive diplomatic headline, sells off, then receives a negative headline and recovers.
That is essentially what we saw on Friday.
In this environment, technical levels become particularly useful because the fundamental narrative can change within hours.
WTI could therefore continue moving between the lower channel/support area and the $95–97 resistance zone until there is clearer evidence of what happens with Hormuz.

What I am watching next week

There are four things I will be watching particularly closely:
1. $90–91: The 4H SMA200 and recent price structure.
2. $87–88: The current approximate lower boundary of the rising channel.
3. $96.89: The important horizontal resistance and current area around the channel midpoint.
4. Hormuz physical flows: Not just political statements, but actual tanker traffic, STS activity, freight rates, insurance and crude exports.
The most important point is that the channel itself is moving. If WTI continues trading sideways while the channel rises, the support levels will gradually move higher. The same applies to the channel midpoint and eventually the upper boundary.
Therefore, the levels I mention today should not be treated as fixed targets several weeks into the future. They are current values within a dynamic structure.

Final technical view

Friday's candle looks bearish at first glance: WTI lost more than 2% and finished the week roughly 8% lower. But when I combine the daily and 4H charts, the picture is more nuanced.
The market sold off sharply on the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough, but buyers appeared again near the lower part of the recent structure.
WTI remains above the 4H SMA200 around $90.36 and, more importantly, the broader rising channel remains intact.
That leaves the market at an interesting technical crossroads.
Above $96.89, attention shifts back toward $98–100 and potentially the $103–107 area.
Between roughly $90 and $96, the market remains in a broad decision zone.
Below the rising channel around $87–88, the current bullish structure would face a much more serious technical test.
But the most important point is that the channel is rising. Its lower boundary, midpoint and upper boundary are continuously moving higher. If the bullish structure survives, the support and resistance levels will therefore gradually rise with it.
Fundamentally, the market remains caught between two opposing forces: the possibility of a diplomatic agreement and Hormuz reopening on one side, and the still-disrupted physical oil market and elevated geopolitical risk on the other.
For now, the market appears to be waiting for confirmation rather than committing fully to either scenario.
Until that confirmation arrives, the rising channel remains my primary framework — with the dynamic lower boundary around $87–88 and the current midpoint/resistance area around $96–97 providing the two most important technical reference zones.